Our full analysis of the Thursday card is listed below. Also, some of our additional thoughts on the co-features are detailed in the video.
Race 1 – $55,000 Al Maktoum Challenge R2 for purebred Arabians (G1), 2,200 meters, Tapeta
#6 SANTHAL was closing late in the first race at Meydan and should appreciate the extra ground. Without the top class Arabians in this field, including No Risk Al Maury, Fryvolous, and Mizzna, this race is ripe for his taking. #13 VIRE VOLTE was stepped WAY up in the ratings off of his strong second at Abu Dhabi. While most of his form is from Qatar, this French-bred has every reason to improve second off the layoff. #8 VITE ROYALE kept on well when third on opening night and makes his third start back from a layoff. He too could jump forward in a big way.
1st – #6 SANTHAL, 2nd – #13 VIRE VOLTE, 3rd – #8 VITE ROYALE
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Race 2 – $110,000 Haafhd Handicap, 1,200 meters, Tapeta
Once again, we land with #11 FROSTY SECRET. The pick from two weeks ago, he made almost all the running and was nipped in the final 100 yards by So Shiny and Oasis Star, both of whom are not present. The course has played incredibly fair over this trip and making all once again, while difficult, could be what we see from this 6-year-old who has six placings from ten starts in the Emirates.
#8 GOOD CONTROL had a solid, if not troubled debut when appearing on opening night, finishing fourth beaten almost two lengths by Sir Gerry, who has done nothing since. He was keen to run on in that event but showed he can get over the course and is likely to come on for that last run. The international commingled pool bettors really respected Good Control last time, making him a surprising 5-2 favorite at the post. #12 PROHIBIT ran on well after enduring some traffic trouble in his last race and likely needs a hot pace to do his best running. The jockey switch to Jamie Spencer is worth at least noting and is another who goes third off the shelf. He is not without chance.
Take note that #9 LUI REI is from the same connections as My Central who upset last year’s Balanchine at a monster price. The history shows these Italian late arrivals to the Carnival have run well first up.
1st – #11 FROSTY SECRET, 2nd – #12 PROHIBIT, 3rd – #8 GOOD CONTROL
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Race 3 – $110,000 Naaqoos Handicap, 2,200 meters, Tapeta
We should at least mention #4 MONTE ALTO first, as he has failed to be first in three tries at Meydan, but managed three placings over the 2,200 meters trip. Will this be the time? Hard to back the regular placer. He was beaten by some decent runners and put in a good go every time. Does he do it here? Tough call, but I’ll lean against…again.
#9 EMIRATES CHAMPION was gallant in defeat last time and gets Dettori for the mount in this attempt. He raced in some tight quarters over the same trip, and bested Monte Alto, getting through on the rail after some traffic at the head of the stretch. Sadly, for him, it was all too little as Anmar stormed home outside, even surprising Terry Spargo, and flew from last despite the paceless race. He showed a good kick that day, overcame some trouble, and had an improving run in his 4-year-old debut. I think he deserves the top spot today.
#12 MISTER FASLIYEV put in a monumental effort last time out despite being kicked incredibly wide on the turn and motoring home. Kal Barg, who had a better trip but was still wide, managed the win. Drawing the rail could be to his advantage today but will surely have to come from behind. He has a chance again.
#1 HOT SIX had a great trip last time out and now is marooned in the far outside post. There was a suicidal pacesetter in that race and Hot Six might not have been far enough back, as King of Rome saved a little more for the stretch drive and went past. Hot Six stayed on well and was second and should improve for that run. The post is the main concern.
1st – #9 EMIRATES CHAMPION, 2nd – #12 MISTER FASLIYEV, 3rd – #4 MONTE ALTO
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Race 4 – $150,000 Aqlaam Handicap, 1,200 meters, Tapeta
#1 AICHI has some top class on his side and wasn’t too far behind Sir Gerry on opening night. There is little doubt he needed that last race to get the juices flowing again. No weight break in this event, so we can’t back that angle. Odd to see Ajtebi here on Aichi instead of Dettori, who does not have a mount in the race. Siding against.
#2 LEAHURST got over this course so well on opening night, and maintained perfection over synthetic surfaces, with the win. Ryan Moore doesn’t have to tackle too much added weight and is poised to give Jeremy Noseda a double with this son of Verglas. This will be his first start on synthetics, over 1,200 meters, and given the look of that last race, he could appreciate not having to do as much running.
Game as can be was what we got from #7 ARANEL last time, even holding off the late-charging Swop when second to the aforementioned Leahurst. He gets a 2 kg weight break and cuts back a furlong. This son of Hawk Wing needs to improve a bit to beat Leahurst, but could do that here.
#4 PRIME DEFENDER hasn’t been over the synthetic since a March 2007 listed event, the Easter Stakes, at Kempton Park – registering a second placing. He had a 2006 win at Wolverhampton when well-backed in his only other synthetic start. This son of Bertolini hasn’t been the greatest but has kept some decent company lines. He could catch the frame, or more, at a price. Also, keep an eye on #14 NOBLE CITIZEN if he draws into the race. He improves the more he runs in Dubai and has always grabbed our attention.
1st – #2 LEAHURST, 2nd – #4 PRIME DEFENDER, 3rd – #7 ARANEL
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Race 5 – $175,000 Nayef Handicap, 1,400 meters, Tapeta
A few in this race come with some decent company lines in the past but have been off for a substantial amount of time, leading us to go with the known quantity. How can you not pick #12 BARBECUE EDDIE? He ran so incredibly well over the trip and surface that it would be difficult to go against this all-weather lover. Barbecue Eddie was a solid top sprinter in his American days when getting over these surfaces and if that’s all it took to get him back to the top of his game…then game on indeed.
#1 SUMMIT SURGE should really improve for his last run, his first since May, and took well to the surface. I give him every chance to improve and turn the tables on the top choice.
#9 DON RENATO has always been a solid Dubai performer, with consecutive thirds in the last two Godolphin Mile (G2) runnings. He often runs towards the rear and while 1,400 meters might be short of his best distances, he could be flying late after the hot pacesetter.
1st – #12 BARBECUE EDDIE, 2nd – #1 SUMMIT SURGE, 3rd – #9 DON RENATO
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Race 6 – $250,000 UAE 2000 Guineas (G3), 1,600 meters, Tapeta
High hopes are held for South American imports, #3 QUARTIER LATIN, #4 DELLA BARBA, and #8 STORM CHISPAZO. #14 MUSIR wasn’t exactly an overwhelming picture of perfection when winning the trial for this event over #11 FROZEN POWER two weeks ago, who also gets Ahmed Ajtebi over Frankie Dettori. If #15 MR CRAZY BOY draws in, he should appreciate the added ground. Don’t forget #6 REAL SECRET, who has not received much press and owns a perfect record in Brazil for connections that have done just fine here in Dubai this year. Both Musir and #13 SOLID CHOICE get weight breaks off the trial, and should help them get some added ground. What a mess!
The top pick will be #8 Storm Chispazo. He relished dirt in his only start over it, when getting 2,500 meters at Palermo in the Gran Premio Nacional (G1). He won in what was, essentially, a hand-ride. There are positives and negatives across the board on so many of these, but we will go here and hope it sticks. Could the 1,600 meters be too short? Absolutely. Toss of the coin across the board.
1st – #8 STORM CHISPAZO, 2nd – #11 FROZEN POWER, 3rd – #14 MUSIR
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Race 7 – $200,000 Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G3), 1,900 meters, Tapeta
I have trouble backing #3 ALLYBAR as his win over Presvis really was almost a non-race. He ran on well, but I just have some trouble thinking he has the same ability as that big group winner.
Concerns certainly exist about getting the distance when considering #5 JET EXPRESS, the Jebel Ali Mile (Listed) winner. He has been nothing short of brilliant in his Jebel Ali races this season, but can he carry that to the big stage? How about #7 STORM SIR, the Qatari shipper who has both lifetime wins and a second from four starts when racing off the grass? Olivier Peslier has moved up several horses over this surface and he could do some damage at a monumental price. He was formerly with Brian Meehan (who trains the top pick in here) and dominated his maiden win over the synthetic in a low class event at Lingfield, then was second in a key race at Great Leighs in late 2008 before being sent to Qatar.. I just can’t count him out entirely from a placing.
#8 JALIL returns off a long layoff and one would think he stands to need a race.
It is difficult to question the form of #11 SNAFFY, a three time Carnival winner from 2009, which included the third round of the Maktoum Challenge, and then landing a handy mile score over the turf. Snaffy ran on well and defeated Yasoodd, who hasn’t won in years and ran what is probably the race of his life.
#10 CROWDED HOUSE was a strong, strong second (yes, strong twice) in the Al Rashidiya (G3) over 1,800 meters and now the question is how well he transfers his form back. The biggest win of his career was the Racing Post Trophy (G1) in 2008 and he broke his maiden at Kempton Park in fine fashion over synthetics. Both he and Snaffy are proven in good form, but I have to like the Crowded House company line better than Snaffy’s win over what I believe to be inferior competition.
1st – #10 CROWDED HOUSE, 2nd – #11 SNAFFY, 3rd – #7 STORM SIR
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Race 8 – $110,000 Muthathir Handicap, 1,600 meters, Tapeta
There is little arguing that #2 CALMING INFLUENCE likely needed the run last time out and it was decent, but indicative of a horse wanting some more preparation. This will be his first start off the turf and it should be noted he worked well when spending the fall in the US at Belmont Park with Godolphin’s North American contingent, but failed to make a start. The price is likely to be short.
#14 BLUES BALLAD has two Jebel Ali wins to his name this season and backed-up, almost expectedly, in the Jebel Ali Mile last time. He was closing in that event but the tops were too good. If that last race was a bit of a regression, he stands to step forward for Satish Seemar on Thursday. #12 SOVEREIGN REMEDY didn’t have too many excuses last time out, other than maybe needing a race. He is tough to judge in this particular spot as that last race was poorer than our expectations. We could get anything out of #5 PERFECTLY, debuting locally for the top Saudi connections. After a layoff of more than 19 months, he finished a strong second in an allowance test at Janadriah and has pleased the connections enough to try this spot off the plane. He might be a cut below but could get a piece of the action at a price.
1st – #2 CALMING INFLUENCE, 2nd – #14 BLUES BALLAD, 3rd – #12 SOVEREIGN REMEDY