Online betting for the Dubai International Racing Carnival can seem, at first, rather intimidating. With some unfamiliar connections, a string of South American and South African imports, long breaks between races, and confusing local form, a review of the form guide could seem hazardous to your wallet. But it is often best to approach wagering on the Dubai Carnival with as much knowledge as you can garner to give your punting the upper hand. Listed below are four tips for approaching the Carnival, updated with some early 2010 Carnival results, plus some additional insight on how to bet on horse racing.
1. Saeed bin Suroor and Mike De Kock win often; find the races with their weakest entries.
Through the the first six nights of the 2010 Dubai International Racing Carnival, these two have teamed up to land 23 of the 45 thoroughbred races at Meydan, just slightly more than half. However, they also account for a whopping 10 odds-on (even money or lower) favorites to have lost, equating to roughly 22 percent of the races. Finding the races where their favored entries are weakest can offer significant value. Mike De Kock-trainee Eagle Mountain was clearly using his 19 February race over Tapeta as a prep for the Dubai World Cup meeting. Bettors made him 1-5 regardless and he checked in second to an ignored Saeed bin Suroor trainee.
On the second night of the 2009 Carnival, De Kock sent out a well-backed runner named Quicksand. He was a recent import from South Africa who had raced with some success in average handicap company, accumulating a record of five wins from eight starts on grass. Quicksand offered no dirt pedigree to speak of but was still installed a 2-1 favorite in a field of nine. Meanwhile, two local runners prepared by Doug Watson, both whom had prepped in Dubai, easily ran past Quicksand in the straight to key a 14-1 winner over a 12-1 second.
Two weeks later, Quicksand was entered again over a dirt trip and favored again at 11-4 while Saeed bin Suroor trainee, Iguazu Falls, who appeared to have no interest in running when last on the opening night of the Carnival, was second in the betting at 7-1; a duo of weaker entries for top connections. 16-1 win Snaffy landed the spoils with 16-1 Noble Citizen second and 14-1 Halkin third as the top two from a 15-horse race were nowhere for their overplayed connections.
2. Favorites have performed better as the Carnival goes on
This has been the case for the past two seasons of the Dubai Carnival; the more they run, the more the public can snuff out the favorites. In the 2009 edition, only six of the first 29 favorites won over the first four nights of the Dubai Carnival, a surprisingly low 21% of the races. Yet, the last six nights of the Carnival saw favorites land 17 of the final 45 races, a strike rate of a more normal 38%.
3. Make the longshots beat you again
Fourteen horses over 14-1 were winners at the 2009 DIRC and came back to make at least a second appearance. Only two of these initially dismissed runners came back to score a repeat victory and of the twelve who did not, they registered only six placings from 30 runs following their upset wins.
4. The local trainers score plenty
While players will certainly notice the names of familiar European trainers sending a string to the rich Carnival, the locally-based trainers win their fair share of races as well. In 2009, Doug Watson, Musabah Al Muhairi, Ali Rashid Al Raihe, and Erwan Charpy all won at least two races, and typically did so at some decent prices. They tend to save their best stock for the Carnival, so take special notice when one of their Meydan runners has had only one or two starts during the local season (at Jebel Ali, Abu Dhabi, or Sharjah). Also, don’t be terribly dissuaded from backing their horses if those local starts didn’t yield stellar results. Many times, the local trainers, reserving their top stock, will run a prep or two over local courses in preparation for a bigger spot at the Carnival. Each of the winners from the four trainers listed had between one and three starts in the Emirates before popping with a big run on a much bigger stage.
In 2010, this trend has held. Local trainers scored nine times out of the first 45 thoroughbred races, and all were offered at incredibly juicy prices.
