Race 1 - $110,000 Jaguar XF Trophy - 1,200 meters, Tapeta

A tough call to start Friday’s meeting as #5 OASIS STAR deserves all the attention he gets as India’s top sprinter, hoping to become the first horse since Mystical, a 2007 Carnival dual winner, to represent the subcontinent.  Toughest competition ever with some in here…toss of the coin.

We landed on #11 SO SHINY last year when she made her debut in Dubai and did so at a juicy 16-1.  A great day that was, indeed.  In her favorable column, she runs well when fresh and that she is again, which included the win last year at Nad Al Sheba and a win back home in Saudi in October.  She was put away for this and catches a class break over her previous runs here.  Certainly, we expect her in the mix. 

#9 FROSTY SECRET ran on quite well when towards the front last week and offers some hope to get a piece of the price.  He clearly got over the surface well and is a Mike De Kock runner who should come on for that last run.  No reason to think he can’t make a picture shot, but he just doesn’t win often. 

The trick in this event, to me, is to determine what to do with #6 SOL DE ANGRA, the Brazilian shipper for Antonio Cintra.  Having watched the replay, he didn’t inspire confidence when fully stretched to win at 20-1 in the GP Major Suckow last time out, but has success away from the grass.  A tough proposition in a very difficult race.   #4 MATSUNOSUKE is a very recent ship in to Dubai but progressed well in his two starts at Wolverhampton, the last a decent win on January 17.  Note that the third place finisher returned to win last Wednesday at Kempton Park and the fifth home Matsunosuke’s last win was just 1.5 lengths behind the third placer well.  So - some form franking to consider.

Tough call…

1st - #9 FROSTY SECRET, 2nd - #5 OASIS STAR, 3rd - #11 SO SHINY

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Race 2 - $150,000 Al Tayer Motors Trophy - 2,000 meters, Tapeta

Three horses, one that really matters.  If #1 PRESVIS airs, the goal likely shifts to the Dubai World Cup (G1).  Granted, he won’t face the toughest competition of the season, and some have concerns about the layoff.  There is also the tricky issue that with only two competitors, does Presvis run the same race?  Still, he is obviously the best horse in the race.  The margin probably won’t be amazing, but measured.  Luca Cumani gets another Carnival winner.

1st - #1 PRESVIS, 2nd - #3 ALLYBAR, 3rd - #4 ZULU CHIEF

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Race 3 - $120,000 Ford Edge Trophy - 2,100 meters, Tapeta

#1 FIERY LAD has been a lover of the all-weather in Ireland and stands a strong chance of giving Luca Cumani a double after Presvis goes a race earlier. 

The question marks fall underneath the able Fiery Lad as I’m wondering how well #4 MASHAAHED takes to the going after two solid performances off the shelf this season and will make his third start back.  Note that Richard Hills sticks with Mashaahed after #7 MONTE ALTO’s performance from last week, fresh in his mind. 

#5 ANMAR and #10 EMIRATES CHAMPION give Godolphin chances in this event, both with AW wins, and layoff returns.  Anmar improved substantially when getting blinkers last time out and could be smart with that move.  It was an easy go over a decent field last time that included last year’s Jebel Hatta second (G2), Russian Sage. 

1st - #1 FIERY LAD, 2nd - #5 ANMAR, 3rd - #10 EMIRATES CHAMPION

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Race 4 - $110,000 Land Rover Trophy - 1,200 meters, Tapeta

#3 FORCE FREEZE will have to negotiate a turn for the first time in almost two years, but he runs so well when fresh and is one of the better horses, certainly the best sprinter, in Doug Watson’s barn.  He usually races with prominence, which could be some concern as you know #7 STAR CROWNED, eighth at Meydan last week, is going early.   #2 ASSET also traditionally runs on the front end, but stalked in both his AW starts back in England, and could sit the garden trip from a rail draw.   He is one who normally runs his best race after he’s had one, but the pace setup could encourage an above average effort.

#6 PRINCE TAMINO almost pulled an even bigger upset than Sir Gerry on the first night, but when Sir Gerry was unplaced Thursday, I can’t exactly say I was inspiried to back Prince Tamino.   Even though he might need one, let’s ride with Asset.

1st - #2 ASSET, 2nd - #3 FORCE FREEZE, 3rd - #8 UPTON GREY

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Race 5 - $150,000 Jaguar XJ Trophy - 1,400 meters, Tapeta

We are going with a bit of a longshot here in #9 NOBLE CITIZEN.  Last season in Dubai, trainer David Simcock got a good gallop in him over the turf before backing up with two strong seconds behind Snaffy, the eventual winner of the Burj Nahaar.  Second off the break he ran a gallant race over the seven furlong trip and gets a lighter spot here.  He’ll get a hearty weight break and is back under Richard Mullen.  An overlay for sure.

#1 IMBONGI might this race and after a spotty 2009 campaign, which started with the highest of hopes but regressed over time, taking a minor Group Three in England.  He rarely isn’t near the finish and think he can easily land in the frame again.

#2 SUMMIT SURGE has every right to give Luca Cumani a treble.  He was a winner first up last season and while that was on the turf, he has some hidden AW form from Ireland, registering a win and two seconds from three starts.  He could float in the market given the presence of Imbongi and Godolphin’s #3 WEST SIDE BERNIE, who seems to be in need of a race.

1st - #9 NOBLE CITIZEN, 2nd #2 SUMMIT SURGE, 3rd - #1 IMBONGI

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Race 6 - $200,000 Cape Verdi sponsored by Al Tayer Motors (G3) - 1,600 meters, turf

One of the Dubai Racing Comprehensive “5 Carnival Horses to Watch” included #10 ZIRCONEUM, and there is no reason to back off.  Her race in the Vodacom Durban July (G1) was an absolutely brilliant effort when second to Big City Life and she gets an accomplished field in her first Dubai start.  Mike De Kock is firing on all cylinders with his horses right out of the barn and this is one everyone has eyes on.  A strong selection.

 #11 SYNERGY has some sneaky good pedigree and spent part of her career in Spain, part in France, and raced over much longer distances than this mile trip.  That is the main draw back for this daughter of Victory Note, a 2000 Guineas winner, but surely a placing consideration.  Among others to consider is #2 ASPECTOFLOVE, Godolphin’s entrant, who would look significantly different were it not for that tenth place finish at Ascot, a race where she was shut off late and had nowhere to go.  Certainly, she has a chance.

#7 YANA will be the third individual horse to start from India, after Oasis Star makes a race one appearance, Friday.  She is probably better over the longer trips as a mile might be just too short.  That being said, she has regularly defeated top open company in her native land and her win three back against Antonios is as quality as then come.  Just too much to do first off the plane.

1st - #10 ZIRCONEUM, 2nd - #11 SYNERGY, 3rd - #2 ASPECTOFLOVE

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Race 7 - $175,000 Range Rover Trophy - 1,600 meters, turf

#1 POET had a grand 2009 and makes his local presence known for his high profile owner, HH The President but is one who often runs with prominence, something a slew of horses in this race often do.  That includes #2 SNAFFY, #3 CAT JUNIOR, #6 DUNELIGHT, and #7 ECHOES ROCK, while #12 MASTER OF ARTS also shows pace and tends to head to the lead in the last half of races, having had a fabulous run in 2008. 

The expectation of some cut in the course, due to some rains in Dubai, could enhance the chances of #7 ECHOES ROCK, off since last year’s Burj Nahaar, an abyssmal dirt debut.  This gelding has run well over the grass in some half-decent company and has had success off the break.  Anything is possible from him, but we will side the more positive side.

The pick here is #10 OLYMPIC ELECTION.  He is one of the few horses who has run from mid-pack to win, making a wide driving move in his last race in Brazil.  South American imports often run best first up and his winning ways at the end of 2009 must have inspired the connections to this spot.  I’ll give him a chance to win a wide open event.  #5 SECRECY should also run into this likely hot pace but lacks experience of the rest of the field.  Could be any kind.

1st - #10 OLYMPIC ELECTION, 2nd -  #5 SECRECY, 3rd - #7 ECHOES ROCK

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Race 8 - $110,000 Ford Mustang Trophy - 1,900 meters, Tapeta

There are times to stay away from Mike De Kock trainees, often when they aren’t close to offering their best horses in a race.  Both #1 ART OF WAR and #3 ROCKS OFF fill that bill, and I will be avoiding them.  #2 BEAUCHAMP VICEROY is interesting as the best form of his life has been the most recent form, but getting the 1,900 meters is a severe question in my mind. 

#9 ROCKETTE is 2-for-4 on AW and the mare from France won “easily” at Deauville the beginning of the year.  It was a long campaign and how she handles the trip here is surely in question, but she ran well over the distance in October and could surprise here for Kieran Fallon.   #6 ATILA SHER DENON is another who has relative success over this 1,900 meters but is lightly tested and could me a step off this bunch.   Godolphin’s entrant, not surprisingly, is certainly a consideration as well. 

It doesn’t get easy during the Carnival, but I will say this much…De Kock does NOT have his best in here.  I’m not taking a short price on them.

1st - #9 ROCKETTE, 2nd - #6 ATILA SHER DENON, 3rd - #2 BEAUCHAMP VICEROY

2010 DIRC Meet-to-Date: 16 selections - 4 wins, 2 seconds, 2 thirds - 25% win, 50% top-three